Paul De St Paer

Economics

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:56:58 GMT

Time for another attempt at prediction. Lets see if this is any closer than my last effort

Our interest rates are still at 0 (well, 0.5 splitting hairs but you know what I mean) and don't look like they will move for a while. Despite this, and despite all the money the government has thrown at the problem like VAT cuts, car scrappage and of course the good ol' quantitative easing, our economy aint growing. I suspect it may continue to not grow when most of this stuff is taken away early next year.

So, far from a nice sharp upturn like I previously thought, it looks like this is going to be looooooong. And probably only really come to an end when the USA and Europe have recovered sufficiently that we can devalue our currency and export (both goods and services) our way out of it.

If this comes out true, then there will be inflation and foreign holidays will be rather pricey for a while although if you own a home then you will at least be able to continue to afford the repayments. If you don't then it is truly horrible as these low interest rates will just allow the housing market to keep rising (slowly) and set it up to tank nicely at the first sign of recovery. Oh joy...

Sharp practices

Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:54:17 GMT

Is it just me or is Ryanair starting to leave a really nasty, unpleasant feeling behind whenever you end up coming across them? We'll leave the climate arguments aside for now, no airline is defensible against those, but the summary of what they've just done is to change from one obscure card (electron)to another (Mastercard prepaid - no, I hadn't heard of that either) the only card which does not attract a £5 per person per flight surcharge when booking. this means that if you pay with your debit card for your family of 4 to go to Dublin and back, they will add an extra £40 to your bill. This for a transaction that costs them about £1.50 or so I suspect.

Why did they make this change? I have no idea, although there was an article about Electron getting phased out recently that might have played a part. More interestingly, why did they add this other, random, card type in its place? That would be to get round the OFT rules that would force them to include the £5 in their quoted price otherwise.

This lot are the king of sharp practices. I look forward to their failure in a couple of years when it becomes apparent that buying stuff off them is too expensive and unpleasant to bear.

Ta-daaaah!!

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:05:30 GMT

Alex can now ride his bike. Pedals back on, no stabilisers. I reckon he covered about a mile today along a footpath and back again.

Hooray for him.

Kite surfing

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:29:03 GMT

How cool is this? I shall add that to 'things I would learn to do if I didn't ever have to go to work'

Oh yes, and didn't have kids to be honest 'cos I would probably be a bit of a scaredy cat but still...

Oh please

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:24:46 GMT

Please let Rupert Murdoch try this.

This is, after all, a man who has absolutely no scruples when it comes to manipulating the gullible public through his horrid newspapers, and trying to charge people to read his online rubbish will only cut him off and reduce his influence. Odd, mind, as however unlovely he has proved to be he has normally made economically sound judgements. But the difference this time is he can't stop other people reporting the same stories on their own sites and that is the vital difference between this and, say, cornering the UK football market.

Deja vu

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 20:27:38 GMT

Here is an enormous suprise. Who could possibly have foreseen that Russia and Ukraine would start arguing over gas supplies and shipping again as winter came round?

At the least, they will slay their sacred cow as everybody starts buying gas from the Arabs or the Norwegians (or even the 'stans). At most it will hopefully provoke the EU into doing something to cut energy dependence although I won't hold my breath on that one.

Can I just point out...

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:07:58 GMT

...that the BNP are not right wing, they are racist. Right wing is a political point of view, as I understand it, which refers to a lack of government interference in day-to-day activities e.g. low taxation for the rich, low levels of state support for the not so well off. It is independent of skin colour.

It would help very much if people in the media would stop referring to them as 'Far-right' and would instead start referring to them as 'Racist'. There is no need even to be rude about them then; their racist stance is a matter of often-stated fact. Think how much more effective it would be to hear 'the racist BNP' instead of 'the far-right BNP' whenever we were unfortunate enough to hear tales of their electoral goings-on.

MPs expenses

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:55:21 GMT

I notice that the various party leaders are all playing Hair Shirt with regards to making their followers obey the ruling that they must pay money back much to the fury of the MPs concerned. Now, there are various arguments over whether this is fair, given that the rules are getting applied retrospectively but a good number of them were obviously on the take.

What these circumstances do seem to have done though is to have given the Right Honourable Members concerned a taste of what the rest of us have been feeling, namely the feeling of getting screwed and being impotent to do anything about it. If there is anything to be gained from this mess then it should be this: MPs - Remember what it feels like, as you haven't really had to experience it up until now. Then try to ensure that it happens as rarely, and to as few people as possible. If you can achieve that, then good may yet come of what has happened.

Good things can be done by people

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:35:46 GMT

One for you Mr. Gates I reckon. If one person can do that with old scrap, why can't a single Western Democracy style government do anything remotely competent with 10's of $Bn?

New Forest Middle Distance

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 19:33:38 GMT

That was a truly lovely event. The stats can be got from various websites so I'll leave them for now. Suffice to say I went much quicker than last year, mostly on the run thanks to being able to run the whole way this time but also, a little to my surprise, on the bike as well, which is encouraging. I though I had done enough bike training without being too enthusiastic and I was riding within myself to give me the best chance of running the whole half marathon so that was good to see.

I reckon I was fitter than last year but what made the real difference, I think, was eating and drinking enough on the way round. I packed two bottles on the bike this time and almost finished both of them and made sure to drink at all the aid stations on the run as well. For the first time I had to do a wee during a race (don't panic, portacabins in the second transition area) and I reckon that was definitely the right way to go about it. I also ended up with my usual knee pain but it has almost all gone today which is about 2 days quicker than last year and about 5 days quicker than after Wimbleball in 2007.

That's (probably) it for long stuff for a while, but I do at least have the knowledge of how to set about these for another time. Train properly, don't go too quick and consume LOTS during the race.

p.s. of all the new forest fauna that could have tripped me up, it was the lesser common mountain biking brat that came nearest.

Empty stables

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 19:50:16 GMT

I see that the attempt to pin blame on other people has begun in respect of the people that ran Rover for its last few years, most notably the attempt by Baron Mandelson (go on then, name me a good Baron by the way) to bar them from running another company. Bear in mind that these people were, by many accounts, a collection of moderately talented chancers who hit the jackpot with Rover. I can just see the conversation now...

BM: You've all been very naughty. Take your ill-gotten £10M and never work again.
Them: err.. OK. You SURE you don't want to put us in court for ripping off the employees?
BM: What do you think I am, an evil Baron or something?

Half Ironman prep

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 16:02:25 GMT

Well, I have done the last long(ish) bike ride for this. 60km, including the A39 hill and Burrington Coombe. I think the fact that I am typing this with a vague sense of relief may well be natures way of telling me to lay off long Tri's for a while.Give it until about Christmas and I'll know for sure.

Roast chicken

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 19:49:31 GMT

Finally got this exactly right, including the roasties. I can even remember what I did slightly different this time as well. And to cap it all, Al even ate his without the usual air of unwillingness he had shown when it was server previously.

Luckily for me, there is enough left over for my next two evening meals as well :)

National triathlon relays

Sun, 23 Aug 2009 16:40:26 GMT

Great fun. 4 to a team, and each one does one discipline before each one starts the next, so transition is handing the timing chip over to a team mate. We had 6 teams (3 lots of girls, one mixed/junior and 2 mens) and the whole thing is held at a rowing lake. The swim is in the lake, the bike is 3 laps each round it and the run is one lap round it so you get to see you team in action/cheering you on/hurling abuse at you as you do it which is great.

There are some very good athletes there but there are also lots of ordinary club athletes and it is towards them that the event is largely aimed. Everyone camps in a campsite about 5 mins walk from the lake and if you have a dry sunny weekend it is just brilliant. If any of you tri lot get a chance you should go for it. Think music festival/LRP festival but doing triathlon for the day instead.

Plus, the blokes team I was on turned our elite ladies team over by 29 secs over 3 hrs 40 of racing. Not much of a boast maybe, but the girls counted a (recent) ex pro and the first two ladies finishers from Burnham this year and we offered 3 of about my standard, plus one who was actually good. Very satisfying

Spam

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:10:50 GMT

I have, in the last couple of days, gone from getting about 3 spam messages per week to getting about 6 per day. Is there a cure for this or does it go away in the end or has the time come to dump my current email address?

Economics

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:25:15 GMT

Small rise in Q2 GDP says I? Shows what I know then. On the plus side, it may mean cheap mortgage payments for a while longer I suppose

Kids, eh?

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 17:07:45 GMT

Izzy wants to learn the Violin. That's fine, I have managed to source a half size violin for her (thanks to her Aunty Karen) and I have enough musical knowledge to kit the thing out with new strings and set her going. I can also clear space in my house and time in my life to help her practice it as well, so what a good parent I am.

Now, Al wants to learn the drums. And he has repeated this a few times so I think it is something he really wants to do rather than a 6 year old's notion, so this could be interesting. I am currently thinking about an electronic kit placed up in my study for him to go with, as I remember how LOUD the things were when I learned them as a kid. And my neighbours at that time were a pub and a print works, not a house and, erm, another house. I don't believe my parents read this journal but if they do, they'll be having a bit of a chuckle about now.

Hooray!

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 20:18:10 GMT

Buckets of cherries from my cherry tree, which has yielded naff all for the last several years, all picked today to stop the blackbirds thieving them all. Honestly, when I watch them fly in, peck one hole in a cherry and then fly off again, I do start to have some sympathy with my cat .

Economics

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:50:22 GMT

Haven't done any predictions for a while so about time I tested my alleged knowledge of this by trying to get things right before then event rather than after.

Right then. We have a quarterly growth figure due out soon (we've just finished Q2, I don't know when the data is produced). I would not be suprised to see that it registers a small positive figure and heralds the end of the technical recession. This has two implications. Firstly, it means interest rates may well end up moving north earlier than people think. My current guess is October this year for what it is worth. Secondly, if you are hoping that it will herald the end of unemployment growth then prepare for disappointment. The economy needs annual growth of about 2.5% to start eating into unemployment and this Q2 figure may be positive but it will still be tiny.

Everyone else, though, is also coming out of recession bit by bit. This will bring inflation back as people start to be able to afford commodities again. Oil is already back to $70 per barrel, a level which wouild have caused a national calamity only about 4 years ago and it will be going higher.

Thoughts (any of you that actually read this stuff, that is)?

Surfing

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:51:55 GMT

Thats two (yes, TWO) perfect surf days with Bruce down at Wooly. Warm air, clouds to cut out the sunburn, right size waves, no wind and as they were work days in term time, ample access to the waves. I do think that I need to spring for a mini mal at some point though. I can ride my current board (7'0, pointy) OK but it just looked so much more fun and graceful on the bigger boards.

Apologies to anyone who I surf with later this year though, I may well have used an entire season's surf Karma in 2 days.

Unrelated items

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 20:12:44 GMT

No. 1 - I had a bowl of strawberries so large from my garden that I couldn't eat them all last night. And that was after taking the manky ones that the slugs and woodlice had had a pop at out to freeze pending some jam making. Happy me. Fortunately I have both the kids and my parents to help me eat the ones I will pick all this weekend.

No. 2 - Was it just me who ended up swearing at the telly at the sight of Martin McGuinness doing his 'politician with gravitas' act and decrying the racist threats to the Romanian workers in Northern Ireland? He spent a large part of his adult life participating in terrorism done up on nationalistic grounds and now keeps a straight face whilst kicking the next generation for behaving like he did (actually behaving better so far, this lot only made threats, they haven't killed anyone yet). Grrr...

Temporary superiority

Fri, 12 Jun 2009 20:23:09 GMT

The running club had a pub quiz last night which was fun. And just for 2 minutes I was the cleverest person in the world as they had a round all about the credit crunch. Mostly, though, it was just nice to sit in a pub (I STILL can't get over the lack of smoke in them) and eat nice food. And not be the cleverest person there.

Burnham tri on sunday. Good luck to those racing.

Idiotwatch

Wed, 27 May 2009 17:42:26 GMT

I know, I shouldn't and its not a good solution but a tiny bit of me can't help wishing that the North Koreans wouldn't hurry up and make good on their threat to pick a fight with South Korea. You see, although this would be unpleasant, noticeably more so than the Iraq fiasco, it would at least get it over and done with.

These people are undoubtedly the most dangerous collection of rogue military knocking around in the world at the moment. They maintain their position by receiving large quantities of foreign aid from the South and the Yanks of all people and spend most of this and whatever else they can get maintaining a formidable military machine with which to threaten the same said SK and USA whilst not being especially concerned about most of their population living off grass and earthworms. And if that population complains then a little starvation will be the least of their worries. If you want a simple proof of what a mess their country is, look for any satellite picture of their part of the world at night. You can draw the borders by where the lights go out.

Now, a fight with this lot would be bad, but at least it would allow the removal of what I would suggest is the nastiest regime left in the world at the moment. Only the Afghan Taliban have really got close in the recent past, and, rather like being sick after too many beers, it would clear the problem out and allow a start on the road to improvement. Nobody will do it as the military cost is too high, they have no oil and the world no longer has the stomach for this sort of stuff anyway, but about 23 million NK citizens would be better off if someone did, and it would remove permanently a regime which is intent on becoming nuclear but is probably not there meaningfully. Yet.

New bike shoes

Tue, 19 May 2009 16:31:10 GMT

Right then. Now I've ordered some proper tri bike shoes with a single big strap rather than the silly fiddly dial that my current ones have, so I have about 3 weeks to learn how to do Andy's trick with them. I reckon it should be worth a bit since not only does it save the obvious time in transition but since I can to the swing-one-leg-over-and-dismount-at-speed thing in trainers I don't see why that can't be done, with some practise and care, in bare feet. And that saves my slow mince and the 'Will you UNCLIP you BASTARD' bit at the end of the ride.

So, in addition to a nice bike ride with Ant and Nastia on Saturday week, Sunday afternoon will be spent scooting up and down the Tesco car park next door entertaining the neighbours I reckon

Taunton Deane Tri

Sun, 17 May 2009 18:28:33 GMT

1:17:04. Which wasn't that great to be honest.

However, it was throwing it down with rain and blowing a gale, and where a better cyclist than I may regard these as merely inconvenient, I found them downright terrifying. So much so that I ended up limping round all the corners, especially the ones at the bottom of hills, and not going on my tri bars much. I normally regard getting into the top quartile of a tri as a measure of whether I have done well in it so if I get anywhere near that for this one then I shall be happy (the formal results are not out yet so I don't know what everyone else did). There is plenty of room for improvement next year.